NDCs and the rationale behind?

NDCs = Nationally Determined Contributions.

NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) are each country’s official climate‑action plan under the Paris Agreement.

They outline how a country will:

• reduce greenhouse gas emissions

• adapt to climate impacts

• track and report progress

National climate‑action plans showing how countries will cut emissions and adapt to climate change.

Every country sets its own targets (“nationally determined”), but must follow global transparency rules.

They are each country’s climate‑action plans under the Paris Agreement.

They state how much a country will reduce emissions and how it will adapt to climate impacts.

Here are clear, recent global figures related to NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions):

• 195 countries are parties to the Paris Agreement.

• 192 countries have submitted at least one NDC.

• 154 countries submitted updated or new NDCs by late 2024/early 2025.

• Current NDCs would lead to about 2.5°C–2.9°C of warming by 2100 (UNEP Emissions Gap Report).

• To stay on the 1.5°C pathway, global emissions must fall 43% by 2030 (from 2019 levels).]

• Instead, current NDCs project emissions to be about 9% higher in 2030 than in 2010.

• The top 5 emitters (China, US, EU, India, Russia) account for ~60% of global CO₂ emissions.

• Finance pledged for climate action in developing countries: $100 billion per year (target was for 2020; reached only recently).

Figures for Specific Countries’ NDCs

Summary of Global Emissions‑Reduction Targets (high level)

• Global emissions must fall 43% by 2030 vs 2019 levels to stay within 1.5°C.

• Current NDCs instead project a ~9% increase in emissions by 2030 vs 2010 levels.

• The gap between NDCs and the 1.5°C pathway is still very large.

• Top emitters (China, US, EU, India, Russia) = ~60% of global emissions.

Rationale Behind NDCs (Why They Exist)

1. To Limit Global Warming

The Paris Agreement aims to keep global warming:

• well below 2°C, and

• pursue 1.5°C (best effort)

NDCs are the mechanism through which each country contributes to this global objective.

2. To Make Climate Action Fair and Flexible

Not all countries have the same, reasons behind:

• economic development

• emissions history

• capacity to invest in clean energy

NDCs allow each country to choose what is realistic for its situation.

3. To Provide a Transparent System

Countries must report:

• their targets

• how they calculate them

• progress updates

This builds trust, prevents hidden emissions, and helps coordinate global efforts.

4. To Create a Cyclical Improvement Process

Every 5 years, countries must:

• submit new NDCs

• increase ambition (“ratchet mechanism”)

This ensures climate action strengthens over time instead of staying static.

5. To Guide National Policy & Investment

NDCs help governments plan:

• renewable energy expansion

• electric vehicles

• forest protection

• climate‑resilient infrastructure

They act as long‑term policy roadmaps.

6. To Mobilize Global Climate Finance

Developing countries often include in their NDCs:

• what they can achieve on their own

• what they can achieve with finance support

This helps direct international funding and technology transfer.

7. To Encourage Accountability

Even though NDCs aren't legally forced, the system creates:

• political pressure

• public transparency

• international scrutiny

This drives countries to follow through.

Who Monitors NDCs?

NDCs are monitored through a global system created under the Paris Agreement.

Multiple bodies are involved — not one single enforcer — but the process is coordinated and transparent.

1. UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change)

This is the main international body responsible for monitoring NDCs.

2. The Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF)

Created by the Paris Agreement, the ETF requires countries to:

• report emissions every two years

• report progress on NDCs

• use uniform reporting formats

Experts then technically review these reports.

3. Independent Technical Expert Review Teams

These are climate experts who evaluate:

• whether the data is accurate

• whether the country is on track

• how clear and consistent the NDC reporting is

They cannot punish countries — but they verify and highlight gaps.

4. Global Stocktake (GST) Every 5 Years

This is the world's “climate report card.”It measures:

• total global progress on NDCs

• collective alignment with 1.5°C

• areas where countries must increase ambition

The GST influences the next round of NDCs.

5. National Governments

Countries monitor themselves through:

• national climate agencies

• environmental ministries

• statistical and emissions‑tracking bodies

They must provide data that meets UN standards.

6. Independent Watchdogs & Climate NGOs (not official but influential)

Groups like:

• Climate Action Tracker

• UNEP Emissions Gap Report

• IPCC research teams

They provide external assessments, often more critical than official reports.

References & additional readings:

1. https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/paris-agreement

2. https://www.wri.org/insights/assessing-2025-ndcs

3. https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2025

4. https://wedocs.unep.org/rest/api/core/bitstreams/4830e1a8-14c0-44a5-a066-cdd2ba5b3e10/content

5. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/

6. https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/transparency-and-reporting/preparing-for-the-ETF

7. https://unfccc.int/topics/global-stocktake

8. https://cop30.br/en/new-ndcs-how-the-paris-agreement-shapes-climate-futures

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